Three things decide the cost of a product: how many emissions it embeds, how much of them is still covered by EU ETS free allocation, and what a certificate costs. Here is the formula CBAMeter uses, where the numbers come from, and a worked example with the EU values in force.
Cost = tonnes × max(E − SEFA, 0) × (certificate price − carbon price paid at origin)
SEFA = CBAM factor of the year × CSCF × EU product benchmark
E is the embedded emissions per tonne (tCO₂e/t). SEFA is the share that an EU producer would still cover with free allowances: it is subtracted from the emissions, and the CBAM factor applies to the benchmark only, not to all emissions (Reg. (EU) 2025/2620). The CSCF, the cross-sectoral correction factor, is currently 1.
From the producer's actual data, if you have it: linked to the installation, or entered on a line. Until verified it remains an estimate.
Otherwise from the EU default values by country of origin and CN code (Implementing Reg. (EU) 2025/2621, as amended by Reg. 2026/1740 of 31 July 2026), increased by a mark-up that grows over the years: for steel, aluminium, cement and hydrogen +10% in 2026, +20% in 2027, +30% from 2028; for fertilisers +1%; none for electricity.
Indirect emissions (the electricity the producer consumes) count only for goods outside Annex II of Reg. 2023/956: cement, fertilisers, agglomerated ores. For steel, aluminium and hydrogen only direct emissions count.
The benchmark comes from Reg. (EU) 2025/2620, for the production route of the country of origin (blast furnace, electric arc furnace, direct reduction…). When the installation's route is not known, the country's typical route is used and the line is flagged as an estimate.
The share of the benchmark still covered by free allowances, year by year. In 2034 it reaches zero and all emissions are paid for.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBAM factor | 97.5% | 95% | 90% | 77.5% | 51.5% | 39% | 26.5% | 14% | 0% |
100 tonnes of hot-rolled plate (CN 7208 51 20) from India, EU default values, certificate price … (…), held constant over the years.
| Year | Default | Mark-up | E | CBAM factor | SEFA | E − SEFA | Cost | €/t |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.280 | +10% | 4.708 | 0.975 | 1.336 | 3.372 | … | … |
| 2027 | 4.280 | +20% | 5.136 | 0.950 | 1.302 | 3.835 | … | … |
| 2028 | 4.280 | +30% | 5.564 | 0.900 | 1.233 | 4.331 | … | … |
| 2030 | 4.280 | +30% | 5.564 | 0.515 | 0.706 | 4.858 | … | … |
| 2034 | 4.280 | +30% | 5.564 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.564 | … | … |
Emissions in tCO₂e per tonne; EU benchmark 1.370 tCO₂e/t for the country's route. The cost grows for two reasons at once: the mark-up on defaults and the falling CBAM factor. The future certificate price is an assumption: here it is the latest published period.
In 2026 it is the quarterly average of EU ETS auctions, published by the Commission; from 2027 it becomes weekly. A simulation uses the price of the document's period; offer comparisons use the same price for all, which you can change to see a scenario.
The carbon price paid in the country of origin is deducted only with actual emissions (Art. 9 Reg. 2023/956): it is not deducted on default values until the Commission publishes default prices by country.
A simulation is an estimate before purchase: the annual declaration is based on actual imports and, where available, on the producer's verified data. Inside CBAMeter the same page shows the parameters in use at that moment. The site calculator uses the same engine, on EU default values.